Dynasty Doods · KTC Trade Analysis

Wes vs. Brian — KTC Value Comparison

Head-to-head 1QB dynasty value breakdown. Identifying where the market is overvaluing or undervaluing players on each roster. Last updated: live KTC pull.

93,686
Wes Total
100,646
Brian Total
−6,960
KTC Gap
35 / 26
Players W/B

Roster Shape — Two Different Strategies

Brian built top-heavy elite. Wes built deep + redundant. Both can win — they win differently.

MetricWesBrianWhat It Means
Total KTC value93,686100,646Brian +6,960 in raw asset value
Player count3526Wes carries 9 more bodies
Avg value per player2,6773,871Brian's players average +44%
Top-5 KTC sum29,21736,538Brian's elite tier wins by 25%
Deep bench (post-#15)strongthinWes wins on injury/bye coverage

Why The KTC Gap Doesn't Tell The Full Story

KTC measures asset value — what the market consensus puts on each player in isolation. It does NOT measure weekly fantasy output, injury redundancy, or roster construction fit. Brian's roster is built top-heavy elite; Wes's is built deep + redundant. Both can win — they're just optimized differently.

Wes's Roster — Full KTC Breakdown

All 35 players sorted by 1QB value.

PlayerPosTmAgeKTCRankPosRk7d

Wes — Undervalued (Hold or Buy More)

Players KTC is pricing below fundamental value.

Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX · 26 · KTC 4,845 (#81 / QB12)
UNDER
Was QB4 in 2025 (350.2 PPR · 4,007 pass + 359 rush · 38 total TDs). Top-7 dynasty QB at age 26 in his prime. KTC ranks 11 QBs ahead of him — most are arguable. Real value: ~5,500–6,000. The gap to QB12 ranking is reputational lag.
Travis Etienne RB · NO · 27 · KTC 5,329 (#72 / RB21) · trending −10
UNDER (on dip)
Lead RB in NO with $52M contract. Market is overreacting to Kamara noise (Kamara is 30, post-MCL injury, restructured for cap relief, possibly cut). Pre-trend value was ~5,800. Buy back to baseline once camp news firms up — could rebound +500 in 30 days.
Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX · 23 · KTC 4,851 (#80 / RB23) · flat
UNDER (waiting)
Etienne is gone, Tuten has the inside track on JAX RB1 work. If he wins camp, jumps to RB12-15 (~6,200 value). Market priced him as committee depth; reality is heir apparent. Hold tight through training camp.
Chris Bell WR · MIA · 21 · KTC 3,543 (#157 / WR61) · trending +36
UNDER (catching up)
Vacated MIA WR room (Hill cut, Waddle traded) + Willis-as-vertical-arm thesis. Already trending hard. Could hit WR40 (~4,500) if Willis-Bell connection clicks in camp. Hold — momentum just starting.
Brenen Thompson WR · LAC · 22 · KTC 1,233 (#410) · trending +323
UNDER (huge trend)
Massive 7-day rise. Market is just discovering him. LAC WR room opening up (Allen FA, Palmer FA). Could hit WR80 (~2,400) if camp confirms his role. Best Day-3 dart on either roster.
Caleb Douglas WR · MIA · 22 · KTC 801 (#467) · trending +284
UNDER (huge trend)
Same vacated-MIA-room thesis as Bell. Could double from current value if MIA WR2 path opens. Bell stack play is live — both rookies trending up together signals real Tua-replacement-era opportunity.
Antonio Williams WR · WAS · 21 · KTC 2,727 (#238 / WR92) · trending +55
UNDER
Daniels offense + slot specialist + R3 #71 NFL capital. McLaurin (30+) target-hogged 30.9% in 2025 — clear transition path opening for the next slot. Heir apparent in 2027.
Max Klare TE · LAR · 22 · KTC 2,260 (#282 / TE39) · trending +33
UNDER (Parkinson FA)
R2 #61 NFL capital + LAR's record-setting 13-personnel scheme + Parkinson FA after 2026. Once Parkinson signing news firms up, jumps to TE25 (~2,800). Patient hold into 2027 ceiling.

Wes — Overvalued (Sell Candidates)

Players KTC is pricing above fundamental value. Sell while the market still buys.

Brandon Aiyuk WR · SF · 28 · KTC 2,958 (#214 / WR86) · trending −15
OVER (still falling)
DNR'd entire 2025 season. 28yo WR with full season missed = significant dynasty value destruction. Still trending down. KTC pricing in upside that probably won't materialize. Sell to anyone who hasn't read the DNR news. Floor is closer to 1,500.
Keenan Allen WR · FA · 33 · KTC 1,845 (#331 / WR129) · trending −13
OVER
33yo free agent without a team. Could go to zero by August if no signing materializes. Was WR29 / 81-777-4 last year, so some teams will still want him — flip to a "I need a WR" team for whatever you can get.
Mark Andrews TE · BAL · 30 · KTC 3,356 (#182 / TE21) · trending −6
FAIR-OVER
30yo declining TE (TE16 last year). KTC reasonable but reputation tax means a contender will still pay TE10-12 prices. Sell window before age cliff hits hard in 2027.

Brian's Roster — Full KTC Breakdown

All 26 players sorted by 1QB value.

PlayerPosTmAgeKTCRankPosRk7d

Brian — Undervalued (Hidden Value)

The market hasn't priced these correctly yet.

Brian Thomas Jr WR · JAX · 23 · KTC 5,636 (#54 / WR24) · trending −4
UNDER (bounce-back)
The single most-undervalued player on either roster. Was rookie WR1-tier in 2024, sophomore-slumped to WR42 in 2025. At 23, prime years are ahead. If 2026 reverts to mean: jumps to WR8-12 (~7,500 value). The market routinely misreads sophomore slumps. Wes's #1 trade target.
Fernando Mendoza QB · LV · 22 · KTC 4,696 (#90 / QB13) · trending −1
UNDER
Heisman + Maxwell + Walter Camp + Davey O'Brien + #1 NFL pick + National Championship. 22yo. KTC at QB13 is conservative for that pedigree. 5-year horizon: easily QB6-8. Same college tier as Burrow, Lawrence, Caleb Williams as prospects.
Eli Stowers TE · PHI · 23 · KTC 4,275 (#111 / TE11) · trending +15
UNDER (catching up)
Mackey winner, R2 NFL capital, Goedert (29) aging out in PHI. Heir apparent. Trending up but more room — Mackey winners hit at high rates (Andrews, Hockenson, McBride, Bowers all hit). Hold through breakout.
Germie Bernard WR · PIT · 22 · KTC 3,372 (#179 / WR70) · trending +33
UNDER (catching up)
R2 #47 NFL pick (PIT traded UP for him). Biletnikoff semifinalist. PIT WR room thin past Pickens. Trending up but still has room.
Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF · 26 · KTC 3,959 (#131 / TE14) · trending −1
UNDER (BUF role)
Allen's TE option in a top-3 offense. Plateaued visibility but role is locked. 26yo in a passing offense is a long-window hold.

Brian — Overvalued (Exposed Positions)

Where Brian's elite-tier construction is paying reputation tax.

Patrick Mahomes QB · KC · 30 · KTC 5,532 (#62 / QB8)
OVER
30yo QB who finished QB11 in 2025 (296.7 PPR — drop from prior years). KTC paying ~1,000 of reputation tax. Real dynasty-value range: QB12-15 (~4,500). If Brian ever floats a Mahomes-package, take it — you're getting future-discounted value the market still prices at 2022 status.
Jordyn Tyson WR · NO · 21 · KTC 5,986 (#43 / WR20) · trending +4
OVER (slight)
R1 #8 pick has hype. But injury history is real: 3 different injuries in 3 college years (2022 multi-ligament knee, 2024 collarbone, 2025 hamstring). KTC pricing peak outcome; probability-weighted is closer to WR30 (~4,500). Sell-high candidate if Brian shops him.
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC · 23 · KTC 7,269 (#17 / RB6)
FAIR-OVER
23yo with R1 NFL capital. But LAC has Najee Harris signed too — volume uncertainty. Top-10 RB pricing is appropriate but slightly inflated for a backfield with question marks.
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL · 26 · KTC 2,043 (#307 / WR118) · trending −12
OVER
ATL WR4/5 in a London-Mooney-Pitts-heavy offense. No path to volume. Should be WR150+ at his age and situation. Still trending down toward reality.

Side-by-Side Read

Where each roster's strengths and exposures land.

Wes — Strengths

  • Elite WR1 in Nabers (KTC #7 overall)
  • Top-7 paired QB room (Lawrence + Dart)
  • 5 functional RBs across the roster
  • Multiple rookie WR upside swings (Bell +36, Williams +55, Thompson +323, Douglas +284)
  • Hunter Henry as TE9 production anchor

Brian — Strengths

  • Elite WR1 in JSN (KTC #3 overall)
  • 3 top-12 RBs (Hampton, Judkins, Henderson)
  • Top-3 NFL Draft 2026 rookie pedigree (Mendoza Heisman + #1 pick)
  • Mackey-winning rookie TE in Stowers
  • Mahomes anchor for ~3 more prime years

Wes — Exposures

  • Aiyuk DNR (−15 trend) bleeding value
  • Keenan Allen (33, FA) bleeding value
  • Andrews (30) age cliff approaching
  • No top-12 RB asset
  • WR2 currently Deebo Samuel (FA, 30)

Brian — Exposures

  • Mahomes reputation tax (~1,000 KTC overvalue)
  • Tyson injury history (3 in 3 years)
  • Dotson dead asset trending down
  • Thin bench past top 15
  • 5 rookies = high uncertainty if class busts

What This Analysis Is

A snapshot of where KTC's crowdsourced market consensus diverges from situation-grounded fundamentals on these two specific rosters. Highlights mispriced assets on both sides — players the market is over-paying for and players the market is under-pricing.

Both rosters can win. Wes's deep+redundant construction is correctly built for production output in a 4-FLEX 1QB league. Brian's top-heavy elite construction is correctly built for KTC value + championship upside. The over/under calls are about pricing accuracy, not roster quality.

Built by Wes via real-time KTC data pull. All values from keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankings (1QB format). Roster data from Sleeper API. Last refreshed: live pull. Methodology: KTC value vs. fundamental value (age curve + 2025 production + NFL Draft capital + role security + offseason context).